Turkey's Fertility Rate Has Continuously Decreased for 11 Years

Fertility Rate in Turkey Decreases Alarmingly

In recent years, the significant slowdown in Turkey's population growth rate raises concerns about potential permanent and profound changes in the demographic structure. Many experts are warning about how this situation may impact the economic and social structure.

Experts' Critical Warnings

It is pointed out that the decline in fertility rate will not only affect population growth but may also lead to issues such as a decrease in the workforce, increased burdens on the social security system, and rising health expenditures.

Long-Term Decline: Since 2014

According to TÜİK data, the total fertility rate was 2.38 children in 2001, but it fell to 2.19 in 2014, entering a continuous downward trend. After 2018, this rate went below 2, dropping to 1.89 in 2019, 1.77 in 2020, 1.71 in 2021, and 1.51 as of 2023, with projections of 1.48 for 2024.

This situation resulted in the fertility rate falling below the replacement level of 2.1.

Expert Opinions: What Will Happen If No Action is Taken?

TÜİK Vice President Furkan Metin described the situation as 'high alert' with the fertility rate dropping to 1.4 and emphasized that Turkey could enter the category of 'very old countries' within 25 years. Metin indicated that if this trend continues, we may face a risk of falling below the EU average.

Average Age and Societal Effects

Noting that ''Turkey had a very young population in the 1990s, but if fertility declines, the median age is projected to rise above 45,” Metin also drew attention to the implications of loneliness and socioeconomic issues in the aging population on society.

Economic and Social Dynamics

Metin asserted that Turkey's high cesarean birth rates also influence this situation, emphasizing the need for new perspectives on marriage age and family structures. The increasing danger of loneliness and issues related to an aging population threaten the future social structure as well.

Historical Perspective: Population Policies

Prof. Dr. Cemalettin Şahin pointed out that the population crisis has been ongoing for the last 20 years, recalling past population growth policies and noting that new regulations are necessary in this regard. He emphasized the need to reevaluate the education system and change the housing culture.