What will the 60/40 Portfolio offer in the Turkish Stock Exchanges in 2026?

Why is the 60/40 Portfolio Important in 2026?

The year 2026 may bring significant changes for investors in Turkey's stock markets. The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy, which anticipates a distribution of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, offers investors a balance between growth and stability.

The 2025 Market and Falling Interest Rates

The year 2025 shone as a “discounted but lonely” year for Turkey. While stocks lost value, high policy interest rates directed investors towards low-risk deposit products. However, this period could be replaced by the bright face of 2026. By the end of the year, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) has reduced the policy interest rate to 38%, and expectations for further interest rate cuts have started to dominate the markets.

Foreign Investors and the Bond Market

As foreign investors begin to return to Turkey, they typically start by turning towards bonds. During periods of high interest rates, bonds offer a secure return to investors. The potential for disinflation and the decline in CDS rates indicate that Turkey is once again a "investable" country.

Advantages of the 60/40 Portfolio

For 2026, the 60/40 portfolio in Turkey is becoming attractive with the high interest environment and potential growth. The high initial interest rates offered by bonds, strong coupon returns, and possible price increases present significant opportunities for investors. It is likely that stocks will gain value in the upcoming period.

Strategy for a Balanced Investment Line

When adapting the classic 60/40 approach to the Turkish markets, there are important considerations. At times, it is crucial to maintain a balance based on investors' risk appetite, whether by increasing stock weight or by expanding the bond share.

Conclusion: Expectations for Turkey in 2026

The year 2026 may offer investors a chance to revisit balance with falling interest rates and decreasing risk premiums. The 60/40 portfolio strategy can gain significance in Turkey's markets, providing opportunities on both the stock and bond sides. For investors, this year will be one where balance and timing are key factors.