TCMB's Monetary Policy Committee Summary: Signs of Slowing in the Disinflation Process

Summary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT)

The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on October 23, 2025, has been published. In this meeting, the policy interest rate was reduced by 100 basis points from 40.5 percent to 39.5 percent. The published text highlighted that the process of inflation decline has slowed and brought attention to the increase in food prices.

Effects on Global Trade and Economy

Uncertainties in global trade policies remain at high levels. It is estimated that the global growth index, weighted by the export shares of Turkey's foreign trade partners, will increase by 1.9 percent in 2025 and 2.3 percent in 2026. In this context, as the weak and fragile economic outlook persists, downside risks to the global growth outlook are increasing.

Monetary and Financial Conditions

As of October 17, the Turkish Lira (TL) deposit rates have fallen to 48.5 percent. TL commercial loan rates were realized at 47.9 percent. During the same period, personal loan rates decreased to 62.7 percent and housing loan rates declined to 37.9 percent.

Future of Inflation and Expectations

In September, consumer prices increased by 3.23 percent, and the annual inflation rate was determined to be 33.29 percent. The price increase in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group had a significant impact on the annual inflation. It is indicated that the rise in food prices is due to supply-side factors and that drought has affected this situation.

Monetary Policy Stance and Expectations

The CBRT will maintain a tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved. The committee will continue to determine interest rates considering the inflation outlook and will take tightening measures when necessary.