"Expectations for Interest Rate Cut by the Central Bank of Turkey are Rising: Economists' Predictions"

Economists Announce Their Expectations

Eyes in domestic markets are now focused on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and its upcoming last interest rate decision of the year. Economists continue to share their predictions regarding how the CBRT will determine interest rates. In the December survey conducted by Matriks Haber regarding the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, 27 economists expressed their views.

Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Predictions

The median expectation of economists for the last MPC meeting of the year suggests that the policy rate will be lowered by 150 basis points, from 39.5% to 38%. Among the economists participating in the survey, 9 people expect a 100 basis point cut, 11 people expect a 150 basis point cut, and 7 people anticipate a 200 basis point cut. Following the decision that will be made in this year’s last MPC meeting, the interest rate forecast for the end of 2025 has also been set at 38%.

2026 Interest Rate Predictions

The median expectation shared by 23 economists for the year 2026 is at the 28% level. These predictions show a distribution among economic analysts ranging from 25% to 31%. It has been announced that the Central Bank's interest rate decision will be revealed on December 11, Thursday, at 14:00.

QNB Turkey's Assessment

QNB Turkey Economist Deniz Çiçek linked the decline in monthly inflation in November to the decrease in unprocessed food prices while commenting on the course of inflation figures. Çiçek emphasized that no improvement has been observed in service inflation and that the main trend of inflation has remained horizontal around 2% for a long time.

Çiçek stated that the CBRT will determine its upcoming interest rate cuts based on the inflation outlook while following a cautious strategy. The economist noted, “We do not expect the amounts of interest cuts to increase as long as no significant decline occurs in inflation trends.” He anticipates a 100 basis point cut in the MPC meeting in December, just like in the previous meeting.