Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey are Rising: Economists' Forecasts

Economists Announce Their Expectations

Domestic markets are focused on the last interest rate decision of the year to be made by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) next week. Economists continue to share their predictions regarding how the CBRT will determine the interest rate. In the survey conducted by Matriks Haber for the December CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, 27 economists provided their views.

Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Predictions

The median expectation of economists for the last MPC meeting of the year is that the policy rate will be reduced by 150 basis points, bringing it down from 39.5% to 38%. Among the economists surveyed, 9 individuals expect a 100 basis points cut, 11 individuals expect a 150 basis points cut, and 7 individuals expect a 200 basis points cut. Following the decision to be made at the last MPC meeting of this year, the year-end interest rate forecast for 2025 was also set at 38%.

2026 Interest Rate Predictions

The median expectation of 23 economists for the year 2026 was formed at the level of 28%. These predictions are distributed among economic analysts in the range of 25% to 31%. It was announced that the Central Bank's interest rate decision will be revealed on December 11, Thursday, at 14:00.

QNB Turkey's Assessment

QNB Turkey Economist Deniz Çiçek linked the decline in monthly inflation in November to the decrease in unprocessed food prices and made assessments regarding the course of inflation figures. Çiçek emphasized that there has been no improvement in the context of service inflation and that the main trend of inflation has been flat around 2% for a long time.

Çiçek stated that the CBRT will set its upcoming interest rate cut steps with a careful strategy based on the inflation outlook. The economist noted, “We do not expect an increase in the amounts of interest rate cuts unless a significant decrease in the inflation trend occurs.” He expects a 100 basis points cut in the MPC meeting in December, just like in the previous meeting.