Expectations for a 150 Basis Point Rate Cut by the CBRT are Increasing

Expectations on Turkey's Interest Rate Policy

The results of the December interest rate survey conducted by Bloomberg HT, with the participation of 19 financial institutions, have been announced. The market expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to lower the policy interest rate by 150 basis points from %39.5 to %38 in the meeting scheduled for December 11.

Differences in Interest Rate Predictions

In the survey, the lowest policy interest rate prediction for December was set at %38, while the highest prediction was recorded at %38.5. These results were shaped according to the median predictions of the participants.

End of 2026 Interest Rate Expectations

The interest rate prediction for the end of 2026 by market participants points to the %28 level. The highest expectation among participants is %32, while the lowest prediction is %26.

Compared to previous surveys, the interest rate expectation for the policy rate in the December surveys conducted in 2024 for the year 2025 was at %31.