TCMB announced its December interest rate decision: What are the new rates?

TCMB Announced the Interest Rate Decision for December

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) made an important decision in its December Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reducing the one-week repo auction interest rate, which is the policy rate, by 150 basis points to 38%.

Interest Rate Updates and Inflation Data

The interest rate, which was 40.5% in October, had previously been decreased to 39.5% through earlier updates. The CBRT emphasized that the inflation in November came in lower than expected, including developments in food prices, stating, "The main trend of inflation has decreased somewhat in October and November after September."

While the committee noted improvements in inflation expectations and pricing behaviors, it underlined that risk factors still persist in the process. The Monetary Policy Committee announced that it would maintain a tight monetary policy stance to ensure price stability.

Economists' Expectations

In surveys regarding the CBRT's decision, the average expectation of economists confirmed the 150 basis point reduction. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), annual inflation for November increased by 31.07% and monthly by 0.87%.

Significant increases were recorded in essential expenditure groups such as food and non-alcoholic beverages, transportation, and housing. The annual increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages was determined to be 27.44%, 29.23% in transportation, and 49.92% in housing.

Exchange Rate and Future Expectations

In the CBRT's November 2025 Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectations for the current year rose from 31.77% to 32.20%. The year-end expectation for the dollar/TL decreased slightly from 43.56 TL to 43.42 TL.

However, the 12-month forward exchange rate expectation increased from 49.75 TL to 50.62 TL. This situation indicates that careful monitoring is required for both inflation and the exchange rate.

As a result, the decisions made by the CBRT and market analyses will continue to serve as an important reference point for investors.