Certainly A Cheaper Thanksgiving: But What Was Lost?

President Donald Trump is presenting cheaper Thanksgiving dinners as proof that his economic policies are working. Data shows that the cost of holiday meals has decreased this year; however, the background of these savings is more complex than Trump suggests.

Trump frequently highlighted Walmart's announcement that its Thanksgiving dinner basket is 25% cheaper than last year. The cost of this year's basket starts at around $40, while last year's was about $55. In a speech at the American Business Forum, Trump said, "It’s 25% lower than last year. That’s a big difference."

Repeating this topic throughout the week, Trump wrote on Truth Social, "2025 Thanksgiving dinner will be 25% lower than the Biden administration’s in 2024."

However, this 25% discount overlooks an important detail: this year's dinner basket is smaller than last year's. The 2025 meal package has decreased from 29 items last year to 23 this year. Missing items include pecan pie, sweet potatoes, celery, onions, marshmallows, cream, and extra soup cans. Walmart also used cheaper store-brand products and replaced cranberry sauce with fresh blueberries.

When NBC News asked Trump about the smaller basket, he replied, "I didn't hear that." However, economists at Wells Fargo noted that Thanksgiving dinner costs are evaluated less dramatically from a broader perspective. "Considering that food prices have increased by 2.7% year-over-year based on the Consumer Price Index, Wells Fargo's Thanksgiving menu has actually decreased by about 2% to 3%," the report states.

According to market research, a small Thanksgiving meal that costs $80 with all store-brand products would cost around $95 if all name-brand items were used. Mixing different brands can also lead to savings.

While overall food inflation remains stable, price stability has been observed for necessary products for Thanksgiving. The Consumer Price Index September data revealed that overall food prices increased by 2.7%, but many holiday staples such as chicken, potatoes, green beans, and canned pumpkin have remained stable or decreased in price.

On Friday, Trump signed a presidential order lifting tariffs on several food products, including meat, coffee, bananas, tomatoes, avocados, and tropical fruits. This move is seen as an acknowledgment that his tariffs have increased market costs. Trump stated on Air Force One, "We've reduced tariffs a bit on many food products." This decision came after significant elections in Virginia and New Jersey, where voters identified high prices as a primary concern. For example, coffee prices increased by approximately 21% last August, marking the largest rise since the 1990s.

The Food Industry Association explained, "President Trump’s decision to reduce tariffs on a significant amount of food imports is a critical step towards ensuring adequate supply at prices consumers can afford."

Beyond Walmart, it is not the only retailer lowering prices. Major chains are offering aggressive holiday promotions in response to shoppers' concerns about food costs. A recent survey found that 90% of American adults are worried about food prices.

Here are some deals:

• Lidl: Meal for 10 for under $36 - less than $3.60 per person
• Aldi: Complete meal for 10 for $40 - including a 14-pound turkey
• Target: Small meal for 4 for under $20 - less than $5 per person
• Amazon: Meal for 5 with prepared side dishes for $25

These deals reflect retailers' efforts to stand out in a busy holiday season.

To help families stretch their Thanksgiving budgets further, Wells Fargo offers several suggestions:

• Mix and match brands. Some name-brand products this year have more discounts on frozen vegetables, blueberries, and other staples.
• Shop early for turkey. Prices may drop as supply peaks; however, the highest quality turkeys typically sell out first.
• Compare different stores. Given price differences, visiting multiple retailers can yield significant savings.

Trump is correct in stating that Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper this year; some retailer promotions do offer impressive savings. However, the 25% discount he mentioned is linked to Walmart's smaller meal basket. The lifting of tariffs on Friday highlights the political pressure regarding market costs and represents a rare acknowledgment that tariffs can increase consumer prices. While the new exemptions may not lead to immediate price drops, they signal a strategic shift in response to voter concerns about costs.

As families plan traditional Thanksgiving dinners, the good news is that strategic shopping can provide a meal that is 2% to 3% cheaper than last year. Retailers are engaged in intense competition for holiday shoppers, and this year might be the best to stock up; although it’s crucial to pay attention to hidden details.