Stifel updated Tesla's target to $508.

Stifel raised its target price for Tesla from $483 to $508. This increase was attributed to stronger-than-expected progress in fully autonomous driving (Full Self-Driving - FSD) and robotaxi developments. These two areas are considered critical for the company's value creation.

The brokerage maintained its "Buy" rating for Tesla, stating that the updated valuation reflects a more optimistic view of the company's long-term technology revenue. Analyst Stephen Gengaro explained that this increase is based on a sum-of-parts framework.

Stifel noted that while they continue to see strong momentum beyond the core automotive segment, they expect some weaknesses in the short term. Following third-quarter sales, Stifel warned that there could be challenges in car sales after the expiration of the U.S. electric vehicle tax credit.

The analyst emphasized that Tesla has made strong progress on FSD and robotaxis, stating that both areas are significant engines of shareholder value.

Additionally, Stifel significantly raised its EBITDA estimates for Tesla. For 2025 and 2026, it expects $14.859 billion and $19.489 billion, respectively; both of which are higher than previous estimates. The 2027 estimate has been modestly updated to $20.605 billion.

Detailing the revised valuation components, Stifel explained that the target was calculated based on a 20-25 times projection of the 2026 EBITDA for the core business, equating to $134 per share. Additionally, the estimated 75% portion from FSD is $186; the anticipated 75% increase from robotaxis is $158; and the expected 50% increase from Optimus is $29.