Introduction to Markets: What You Need to Know on November 24th

Market Entry: What You Need to Know on November 24

We are entering global markets with a mixed risk appetite. While U.S. futures show a slightly positive trend, a negative outlook is prominent in some regions of Asia, particularly Japan. Hong Kong, on the other hand, presents a buying scenario.

Focus on PCE Data in the U.S. Economy

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has settled around 4.07%, while the dollar index remains stable at approximately 100.2. However, the absence of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and JOLTS data for September clearly highlights the lack of data in the markets. For this reason, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and the preliminary GDP report set to be released this week hold critical importance for investors.

Uncertainty in Fed Policy Continues

We are undergoing a period where different views regarding interest rate policy are emerging. Discussions within the Fed are oscillating between inflation and employment. Recent weak macroeconomic data has affected market pricing, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in December. However, some Fed members remain cautious regarding the timing of these cuts.

The Impact of Geopolitical Developments on Markets

Secret negotiations between the U.S. and Russia are another significant factor directly influencing market pricing. These talks create uncertainties regarding discussions over Ukraine, along with economic and political repercussions in Europe. Meanwhile, foreign investments in China have declined for three consecutive years, indicating that global capital is behaving cautiously.

Developments in Europe and Turkey

In Europe, budget deficits and rising debt levels create a discussion topic, while the IFO indicators to be announced from Germany will be closely monitored. In Turkey, the BIST 100 index fluctuates between 10,800 and 11,000, with contractions seen in banking stocks. The index's movement above 10,900 is an important indicator for short-term direction. Subsequently, the Dollar/TL remaining above critical levels continues to have an impact on the market.

Short-Term Expectations and Recommendations

A slight increase is observed in leading benchmark bond yields. Market dynamics, along with political developments, will be definitive this week. Investors should closely follow the discussions between President Erdoğan and Putin, as well as MSCI index changes. This situation could lead to stock-specific changes in Borsa Istanbul.

Conclusion

There is a fragile balance in the markets. However, as long as the level of 10,800 is maintained, the upward trend may continue. Global data flow and political developments will be decisive for investors in determining direction.