What You Need to Know Before the Market Opens – December 9, 2025

What to Know Before the Market Opens

While global markets focus on the approaching Fed meeting, a weak atmosphere prevails in the general outlook of US indices. The S&P 500 closed the day down approximately 0.35%, while the Nasdaq also recorded a limited decline. In this uncertain environment, technology stocks are under intense pressure; particularly, Oracle (ORCL) earnings and the Fed's year-end decision are creating a cautious impact on investors.

Market Developments

The approval of Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips sales to China by US President Trump raises risks, although this situation could have a positive impact on the markets. It is noteworthy that a quarter of the revenue from these sales will be transferred to the US government. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in after-hours trading, while news that Microsoft (MSFT) will progress with Broadcom on next-generation specialized chip production has also strengthened Broadcom (AVGO) shares.

Labor Market and Economic Indicators

As the US government reopens, disruptions in data flow are returning to normal. The JOLTS job openings data to be released today will provide important information about the labor market. Furthermore, it is expected that unemployment claims to be published on Thursday will continue the low layoff trend. Although the year-on-year increase in the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, PCE, is expected to remain below expectations, this reinforces the view that the process of interest rate cuts will proceed cautiously.

Situation in European and Asian Markets

In Europe, a recovery was observed in Germany's industrial production in October. There is also a slight improvement in investor confidence in the Eurozone. In Asia, China's exports have regained momentum following a temporary agreement with the US. It is expected that the Chinese inflation data to be released this week will show a slight recovery as well. Additionally, the 25 basis point rate hike possibility at the BoJ meeting in Japan is attracting attention.

Current Situation in Borsa Istanbul

Starting the week with the agenda of interest rate cuts from the Fed and the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB), Borsa Istanbul experienced an optimistic atmosphere in the early hours. The BIST 100 index closed up 1.65%. However, the sustainability of the current rise is important from a short-term perspective. Considering that the index is struggling to remain above the 11,200-point level, surpassing this level could enhance the upward momentum.

Turkey's 5-year CDS premium remaining below 230 basis points could positively affect investor sentiment. It is believed that a 100-150 basis point cut may be on the agenda in the TCMB's future meeting, creating a perception that there may be more room for easing in monetary policy.