Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens – December 9, 2025

Things to Know Before the Market Opens

As global markets focus on the upcoming Fed meeting, a weak sentiment prevails in the overall outlook for U.S. indices. The S&P 500 closed the day down approximately 0.35%, while the Nasdaq also recorded a limited decline. In this uncertain environment, there is heavy pressure on technology stocks; particularly Oracle (ORCL)'s earnings and the Fed's year-end decision are creating a cautious effect on investors.

Market Developments

The approval of sales of Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips to China by U.S. President Trump raises risks, yet it could have a positive effect on the markets. It is noteworthy that a quarter of the revenue from the sales will be transferred to the U.S. government. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in after-hours trading, while news that Microsoft (MSFT) will proceed with Broadcom for next-generation chip production has also strengthened Broadcom (AVGO) shares.

Labor Market and Economic Indicators

With the reopening of the U.S. government, disruptions in data flow are returning to normal. Today's JOLTS job openings data will provide significant insights into the labor market. Additionally, there is an expectation that jobless claims, released on Thursday, will maintain a trend of low layoffs. The year-on-year increase in the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, PCE, is expected to fall below expectations, reinforcing the view that the rate cut process will continue cautiously.

Situation in European and Asian Markets

On the European side, a recovery in Germany's industrial production was observed in October. There is also a slight improvement in investor confidence in the Eurozone. In Asia, China's exports have gained momentum following a temporary agreement with the U.S. This week, a slight recovery in China's inflation is also expected. Notably, there is a possibility of a 25 basis point increase in the BoJ meeting in Japan.

Current Situation in Borsa Istanbul

Borsa Istanbul started the week with the agenda of rate cuts from the Fed and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), and there was an optimistic atmosphere in the early hours. The BIST 100 index closed up 1.65%. However, the sustainability of the current rise is important from a short-term perspective. Considering that the index is struggling to stay above 11,200 points, surpassing this level could strengthen the upward momentum.

The fact that Turkey's 5-year CDS premium remains below 230 basis points could have a positive effect on investor sentiment. It is believed that a 100-150 basis point cut is on the agenda for TCMB's future meeting, and this creates a perception that there may be an increase in the space for easing monetary policy.