Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens - December 9, 2025

Things to Know Before the Market Opens

As global markets turn their attention to the upcoming Fed meeting, a weak atmosphere prevails in the overall appearance of U.S. indices. The S&P 500 closed down about 0.35%, while the Nasdaq also recorded a limited decline. In this uncertain environment, technology stocks are under significant pressure; in particular, Oracle's (ORCL) earnings report and the Fed's decision at the end of the year have a cautious effect on investors.

Market Developments

While U.S. President Trump’s approval for the sale of AI chips like Nvidia’s H200 to China increases risks, this situation may create a positive impact on the markets. It is noteworthy that a quarter of the revenue from the sales will be transferred to the U.S. government. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in after-hours trading, while reports that Microsoft (MSFT) is progressing with Broadcom for next-generation specialized chip production have also boosted Broadcom (AVGO) shares.

Labor Market and Economic Indicators

With the reopening of the U.S. government, disruptions in the flow of data are returning to normal. Today's JOLTS job openings data will provide important insights into the labor market. Additionally, there are expectations that unemployment claims, which will be published on Thursday, will continue to show a low tendency for layoffs. The annual increase in the PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, is expected to remain below expectations, strengthening the view that the process of interest rate cuts will proceed cautiously.

Situation in European and Asian Markets

In Europe, a recovery in Germany's industrial production was observed in October. There is also a slight improvement in investor confidence in the Eurozone. In Asia, China's exports have regained momentum following a temporary agreement with the U.S. The Chinese inflation data to be released this week is also expected to show a slight recovery. Notably, there is an increasing possibility of a 25 basis point hike in the upcoming BoJ meeting in Japan.

Current Situation in Borsa Istanbul

Starting the week with the agenda of interest rate cuts by the Fed and TCMB, Borsa Istanbul experienced an optimistic atmosphere in the early hours. The BIST 100 index closed with a 1.65% increase. However, the sustainability of the current rise is important for the short-term outlook. Considering that the index is struggling to remain above 11,200 points, breaking this level could enhance the upward momentum.

Turkey's 5-year CDS premium remaining below 230 basis points may positively influence investor sentiment. It is thought that a 100-150 basis point cut is on the agenda for the TCMB's future meeting, which creates a perception that there may be more room for easing in monetary policy.