Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens - December 9, 2025

Things to Know Before the Market Opens

While global markets are focused on the upcoming Fed meeting, there is a weak atmosphere prevailing in the general outlook of the US indices. The S&P 500 closed the day down about 0.35%, while the Nasdaq also recorded a slight decline. In this uncertain environment, there is also significant pressure on technology stocks; especially Oracle's (ORCL) earnings report and the Fed's year-end decision create a cautious impact on investors.

Market Developments

US President Trump’s approval of Nvidia’s sale of AI chips like the H200 to China increases risks, while this situation may create a positive effect in the markets. The fact that a quarter of the revenue from the sale will be transferred to the US government is noteworthy. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in after-hours trading, while news that Microsoft (MSFT) will proceed with Broadcom for the next-generation custom chip production has also strengthened Broadcom (AVGO) shares.

Labor Market and Economic Indicators

With the reopening of the US government, disruptions in data flow are returning to normal. Today's JOLTS job openings data will provide important information about the labor market. Moreover, there is an expectation that unemployment claims to be published on Thursday will continue to reflect a low layoff trend. The year-on-year increase in the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, PCE, is expected to fall below expectations, strengthening the view that the process of interest rate cuts will continue cautiously.

Situation in European and Asian Markets

On the European side, a recovery in Germany's industrial production was observed in October. There is also a slight improvement in investor confidence in the Eurozone. In Asia, China’s exports have gained momentum again following a temporary agreement reached with the US. The Chinese inflation, to be announced this week, is also expected to show a slight recovery. In Japan, the potential for a 25 basis points increase in the BoJ meeting is notable.

Current Status of Borsa Istanbul

Borsa Istanbul started the week with a focus on the interest rate cuts by the Fed and the TCMB, with an optimistic mood prevailing in the early hours. The BIST 100 index closed up 1.65%. However, the sustainability of the current rise is important for the short-term outlook. Considering that the index struggles to stay above the 11,200 points level, breaking this level could increase the momentum of the rise.

The fact that Turkey's 5-year CDS premium remains below 230 basis points could positively influence investor sentiment. It is thought that a 100-150 basis point cut is on the agenda for the TCMB's upcoming meeting, which could create a perception that there is more room for easing in monetary policy.