Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens - December 9, 2025

What You Need to Know Before the Market Opens

As global markets turn their attention to the upcoming Fed meeting, a weak atmosphere prevails in the overall outlook of US indices. The S&P 500 closed down approximately 0.35%, while the Nasdaq also recorded a limited decline. In this uncertain environment, technology stocks are under intense pressure; especially Oracle (ORCL) earnings and the Fed's year-end decision are creating a cautious impact on investors.

Market Developments

The decision by US President Trump to approve the sale of AI chips like Nvidia's H200 to China increases the risk, but it could also have a positive effect on the markets. Notably, a quarter of the revenue from the sales will be transferred to the US government. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in after-hours trading, while news that Microsoft (MSFT) will advance with Broadcom in producing next-generation specialized chips has also energized Broadcom (AVGO) shares.

Labor Market and Economic Indicators

With the reopening of the US government, disruptions in the data flow are returning to normal. Today's JOLTS job openings data will provide important insights into the labor market. Additionally, there is an expectation that Thursday's unemployment benefit applications will continue to show a low tendency for layoffs. The annual increase in PCE, the inflation indicator preferred by the Fed, is expected to remain below expectations, strengthening the view that the rate cut process will proceed cautiously.

Situation in European and Asian Markets

In Europe, a recovery was observed in Germany's industrial production in October. There is also a slight improvement in investor confidence in the Eurozone. In Asia, China's exports have regained momentum following a temporary agreement with the US. China's inflation, which will be announced this week, is also expected to show a slight recovery. Meanwhile, the possibility of a 25 basis point increase in the BoJ meeting in Japan is gaining attention.

Current Situation in Borsa Istanbul

Borsa Istanbul began the week with the agenda of rate cuts from the Fed and TCMB, with an optimistic atmosphere prevailing in the early hours. The BIST 100 index closed up 1.65%. However, the sustainability of the current rise is important from a short-term perspective. Considering that the index has difficulty staying above the 11,200 level, surpassing this level could enhance the upward momentum.

Turkey's 5-year CDS premium remaining below 230 basis points could positively affect investor perception. There is speculation that a 100-150 basis point cut is on the agenda for the TCMB's upcoming meeting, which could create a perception of increased easing space in monetary policy.