Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens – December 9, 2025

What You Need to Know Before the Market Opens

As global markets turn their attention to the upcoming Fed meeting, there is a weak outlook for US indices. The S&P 500 closed the day down approximately 0.35%, while Nasdaq also recorded a slight decline. In this uncertain environment, there is significant pressure on technology stocks; particularly, Oracle (ORCL) earnings and the Fed's decision at the end of the year are making investors cautious.

Market Developments

President Trump's approval for the sale of AI chips like Nvidia’s H200 to China increases risks, while this situation could have a positive impact on the markets. It is noteworthy that a quarter of the revenue from the sale will be allocated to the US government. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in after-hours trading, while reports that Microsoft (MSFT) will partner with Broadcom for new generation special chip production have also boosted Broadcom (AVGO) shares.

Labor Market and Economic Indicators

With the reopening of the US government, disruptions in data flow are returning to normal. Today's JOLTS job openings data will provide important insights into the labor market. Additionally, there is an expectation that the unemployment claims to be announced on Thursday will continue to reflect a low layoff trend. The annual increase in the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE, is expected to remain below expectations, strengthening the view that the process of interest rate cuts will continue cautiously.

Situation in European and Asian Markets

On the European front, a recovery was observed in Germany's industrial production in October. There is also a slight improvement in investor confidence in the Eurozone. In Asia, China's exports have gained momentum again following a temporary agreement with the USA. The Chinese inflation data to be released this week is also expected to show a slight recovery. In Japan's BoJ meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point increase is noteworthy.

Current Situation in Borsa Istanbul

Beginning the week with the agenda of interest rate cuts from the Fed and TCMB, Borsa Istanbul had an optimistic atmosphere in the early hours. The BIST 100 index closed up 1.65%. However, the sustainability of the current rise is crucial for the short-term outlook. Considering that the index struggles to maintain levels above 11,200 points, breaking through this level could increase the upward momentum.

Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium remaining below 230 basis points could positively affect investor sentiment. There is speculation that a 100-150 basis point cut is on the agenda for the TCMB's future meeting, which creates an impression that there could be more room for easing in monetary policy.