What You Need to Know Before the Market Opens - December 9, 2025

What to Know Before the Market Opens

As global markets turn their attention to the upcoming Fed meeting, a weak atmosphere prevails in the overall outlook of U.S. indices. The S&P 500 closed the day down approximately 0.35%, while the Nasdaq also recorded a limited decline. In this uncertain environment, technology stocks are under significant pressure; particularly, Oracle (ORCL) earnings and the Fed's year-end decision are having a cautious effect on investors.

Market Developments

U.S. President Trump’s approval of sales of AI chips like Nvidia’s H200 to China has increased risks, though this may have a positive effect on the markets. Notably, a quarter of the revenue from these sales will be transferred to the U.S. government. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in after-hours trading, while news that Microsoft (MSFT) will proceed with Broadcom for next-generation specialized chip production has also strengthened Broadcom (AVGO) shares.

Labor Market and Economic Indicators

With the U.S. government reopening, disruptions in data flow are returning to normal. Today's release of the JOLTS job openings data will provide important insights into the labor market. Additionally, there are expectations that unemployment insurance claims to be published on Thursday will continue to show low job layoff tendencies. The year-on-year increase in the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE, is expected to fall below forecasts, reinforcing the view that the process of interest rate cuts will continue cautiously.

Situation in European and Asian Markets

In Europe, a recovery in Germany’s industrial production has been observed in October. There is also a slight improvement in investor confidence in the Eurozone. In Asia, China’s exports have gained momentum following a temporary agreement with the U.S. The Chinese inflation figures to be announced this week are also expected to show a slight recovery. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point increase at the BoJ meeting in Japan is gaining attention.

Current Situation in Borsa Istanbul

Starting the week with the agenda of interest rate cuts by the Fed and TCMB, a positive atmosphere prevailed in Borsa Istanbul early on. The BIST 100 index closed up 1.65%. However, the sustainability of the current rise is crucial from a short-term perspective. Considering that the index has difficulty maintaining levels above 11,200 points, surpassing this level could enhance the momentum of the rise.

Turkey's 5-year CDS premium remaining below 230 basis points might positively affect investor sentiment. It is believed that a 100-150 basis point cut is on the agenda for the TCMB’s upcoming meeting, creating a perception that there could be more room for easing in monetary policy.