6 Key Points You Need to Know Before the Market Opens

6 Key Points You Should Know Before the Market Opens

As of October 6, critical developments are taking place in the global markets. While uncertainties regarding the shutdown of the federal government in the United States continue, investors harbor hopes for ongoing interest rate cuts. However, the budget deadlock prevents important economic data from being released. In particular, while the employment report for September is awaited, the S&P Global services PMI has risen to 54.2, indicating that economic expansion continues.

Employment and Economic Data

The ISM services index remained at 50, falling below market expectations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted the effects of budget discussions on slowing economic growth and the labor market. Thus, while investors expect a deterioration in growth and confidence indicators, gold prices continue to rise amid increasing risk perception.

Gold and Bond Market

Spot gold is trading around $3,900, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has stabilized at 4.15%. The dollar index continues to hover around the 98 level, as investors turn to safe havens like gold.

European and OPEC+ Effects

On the European side, indices closed the week positively, while OPEC+ decided to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in November. This has brought Brent oil prices down to $64. However, declines in energy costs are expected to support expectations for interest rate cuts.

Data Monitored by Us

Although discussions on the U.S. budget limit global risk appetite, expectations for interest rate cuts continue to support Wall Street indices. The Dow Jones rose by 0.5%, while the Nasdaq closed the week with a limited decline. In Asian markets, Japan stands out with strong buying, while the Chinese stock market is closed due to a holiday.

Domestic Developments

In September, the CPI increased by 3.23%, raising the annual inflation rate to 33.29%. Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek stated that the rise in food prices is due to drought and frost effects, while Central Bank Governor Karahan emphasized that they will not rush into interest rate cuts.

Outlook for the Upcoming Week

The BIST 100 index broke the 10,900 support after high inflation data. It is indicated that the index will be tracked at the 10,700 support level next week, while 10,900 and 11,000 levels will stand out as main resistance points. The VIOP morning session started with a 0.74% increase. Additionally, domestic real effective exchange rate and budget balance data will be closely monitored.