"Important Developments and Investment Opportunities at Market Open"

Notable Developments at Market Opening

As the week begins, a positive start is expected in global markets, with optimism supported by significant progress in US-China trade talks and expectations of a Fed interest rate cut.

US-China Trade Talks

During meetings held in Malaysia, delegations from both countries reportedly reached a preliminary agreement on tariffs, export controls, and fentanyl issues. This situation has increased hopes for reconciliation in the markets ahead of the summit scheduled on October 30 between Trump and Xi Jinping.

US Inflation and Market Reaction

The recently announced US inflation for September came in at an annual rate of 3.0%, below the market expectation of 3.1%. This development has strengthened the likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Fed's meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The probability of this cut is at 96.7% according to FedWatch.

Global Market Effects

Following the inflation data, demand for risky assets increased; the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.15%, and the Dow Jones saw a 1.0% increase. Additionally, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed to 4.03%, while gold prices fluctuated between $4,050 and $4,140, starting the week at $4,061.

Eurozone Policies

In the Eurozone, PMI data for October, driven by the services sector, indicated the fastest growth since May 2024. This situation helped the EUR/USD pair rise above the 1.16 level. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates steady at 2% this week.

Global Commodity Markets

Trade optimism affecting global commodity markets pushed the price of Brent crude oil to $66.1 per barrel. The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained value thanks to trade developments related to China, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index showed a flat trend.

Domestic Market Tables

In Turkey, interest rate decisions have been priced in according to market expectations, leading to a strong recovery in TL assets. Borsa Istanbul ended a four-week streak of declines with a 7.2% increase. The banking index gained over 12% in value.

Today's Upcoming Developments

Among the leading indicators to be announced domestically are the confidence indices for the real sector, services, retail, and construction sectors, as well as the unemployment rate. A balanced start is anticipated amid the global positive atmosphere and rising political tension. VIOP started the morning session down by 0.02%.

Technical Analysis

Levels of 10,900 and 10,700 are observed as support, while resistance levels of 11,100 and 11,300 are noted. A close above 11,300 could increase the buying pressure. The October inflation data and the year-end Inflation Report will play a decisive role in determining the direction of TL assets.