Key Developments and Important Data at Market Opening

Important Developments Before Market Opening

In global markets, notable news and data are on investors' radar before the opening on December 16. Particularly, the employment data to be announced in the US at 16:30 is among the key factors that will determine market volatility. These figures, which were postponed due to the federal government shutdown, are expected to indicate a limited increase in non-farm employment. A partial rise in the unemployment rate is expected, while wage increases are stated to be crucial for the inflation outlook.

Market Expectations and the Importance of Data

In the markets, strong data is needed that could reverse interest rate cut expectations or negatively impact soft landing scenarios alongside weak data. Indeed, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be announced on Thursday also holds significant importance. Following the Federal Reserve's last interest rate cut, it was observed that the dollar depreciated, while the EUR/USD pair gained a strong appearance by breaking above the descending channel.

Commodity and Bond Market Developments

In the commodity market, gold has continued its upward trend, rising above the $4,300 level with the Fed's easing steps. A pullback has also been observed in US Treasury yields following Fed decisions, while the volatility index VIX shows a limited increase. Additionally, domestically, the BIST 100 index continues to positively differentiate itself from global markets, holding above the 11,000 level.

Economic Developments in Turkey

The BIST 100 index significantly strengthened its technical outlook by surpassing the 11,160 level. As long as it stays above this level, a continuation of the upward trend is expected. If the 11,500 resistance is broken, the historical peak of 11,605 points may come into focus. Additionally, following the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) interest rate cut, a limited upward reaction has been observed in bond yields. The decline of Turkey's 5-year CDS risk premium to 216 is another factor supporting market perception.

Critical Data for Investors

In the domestic market, according to the data announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, the central government budget recorded a surplus in November, while a decrease in the budget deficit was noted in the first eleven months of the year. This situation is supported by the ministry's messages that the disinflation process will continue for 2026. Moreover, the potential impacts of the minimum wage discussions on the markets will also be a focus for investors.

The Housing Price Index and Housing Sales data to be announced today are thought to provide important signals, especially for the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector.