Market Opening Priorities and Expectations

Prioritized Agenda and Expectations at Market Opening

A thrilling day begins in global markets. Today's market dynamics are expected to be shaped by the release of January's non-farm payroll data, which was postponed due to the partial government shutdown in the US. The employment increase is anticipated to be around 70,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.

Labor Market and Interest Rate Expectations

This data, which could significantly influence the Fed's interest rate cut decisions, may strengthen interest rate cut expectations if it comes in weak. Conversely, a strong employment report could reinforce the perception that rates will remain high for a longer period. In light of leading indicators, the Challenger report shows a 118% year-on-year increase in job cut claims in January.

The JOLTS data reveals a decline in open job positions and an increase in unemployment benefit claims, indicating signs of slowdown in the labor market. Additionally, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett mentioned that an increase in productivity could help explain low employment figures, thereby easing panic in the markets.

Macroeconomic Developments

The observed weakness on the macro front includes lower-than-expected retail sales data for December and signs of a slowdown in consumer spending. As the US 10-year Treasury yield declines to around 4.15%, the dollar index displays a weak outlook. The euro/dollar parity remaining above 1.19 indicates that the European Central Bank is not distressed.

Geopolitical and Energy Markets

Geopolitical concerns, coupled with US-Iran talks and Washington's messages about increasing military presence, are attracting attention as factors that will raise risk premiums. Oil prices are trading around $69 for Brent and $64-65 for WTI.

Global Stock Markets and Forecasts

This morning, an increased risk appetite is observed in global stock markets. US futures indexes are slightly up, and a buying trend is evident in Asian markets. Domestically, the BIST 100 index is attempting to hold above the 13,700 support level while moving towards the 14,000 level. Recent strength in the banking index and the earnings season are contributing to stock-specific movements.

The dollar/TL is trying to remain above the 43.60 level, with 43.50 monitored as support. Although the weakness in the dollar index is limiting pressure on the Turkish lira, it's emphasized that domestic dynamics are decisive.

Technical Outlook and Strong Stocks

Among the strong stocks catching attention in the BIST 100 and S&P 500 indexes are Girişim Elektrik Sanayi (GESAN) and Yapı ve Kredi Bankası (YKBNK). While the technical outlook of these stocks presents a significant opportunity for investors, the overall condition of the markets should be closely monitored.