What to Watch for at Market Opening (October 23)

Things to Consider at Market Opening

In global markets, as of October 23, a cautious atmosphere prevails due to geopolitical risks and weak earnings reports from technology stocks. The rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia are increasing the perception of risk in the markets. Indeed, Trump’s new sanctions against Russia, along with the expansion of software export restrictions to China, have contributed to this sentiment.

Energy Markets and Prices

These developments have been further reinforced by sanctions imposed on major Russian energy giants like Rosneft and Lukoil from the U.S. Consequently, Brent crude oil prices rose by 3%, climbing above the $64 level. News from India indicates that Russian oil purchases will be reconsidered. This situation has rekindled concerns over global supply.

Gold Prices and Dollar Index

Gold prices have faced profit-taking after a recent rapid increase. Currently, the price of gold per ounce has decreased to $4,084, while futures have stabilized around $4,100. The Dollar Index (DXY) continues to stay above the 99 level, while the euro/dollar parity is trading slightly below the 1.16 level.

Domestic Developments

Domestically, ahead of the TCMB's interest rate decision, Borsa Istanbul is showing a positive picture. The banking index has gained 0.55%, while the industrial index has increased by 2.02%. Losses have been observed in mining stocks due to the drop in gold prices. Notable stocks include ENKAI, MGROS, and TUPRS, while KOZAL, THYAO, and PGSUS experienced declines by the end of the day.

Important Data and Expectations

Today, the focus in the markets will be on the TCMB Monetary Policy Committee decision to be announced at 14:00. The general expectation is for the policy rate to be reduced by 100–150 basis points from the current level of 40.50%. However, higher-than-expected inflation data may raise concerns that the Central Bank might pause the rate reduction process.

Technical Outlook and Earnings Expectations

Technically, the BIST 100 index has notable resistance levels at 10,700 and 10,800. As long as it remains above the 10,500 level, a short-term positive outlook can be observed in the index. Increased volatility is expected after the interest rate decision, and declines in stocks may create opportunities ahead of earnings announcements. In the earnings announcement schedule, AKBNK, TAVHL, and EBEBK stocks are being monitored with strong expectations.