Uncertainty in Demand and Supply of Petrol Prices: Recent Developments

Decline in the Oil Market and Supply Expectations

Recently, oil prices have slightly retreated due to decreasing tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil stocks in the U.S.. The price of Brent oil fell below 66 dollars per barrel after an increase of more than 1% on Wednesday. On the same day, U.S. crude oil (WTI) continued to trade around 62 dollars.

Developments in the Middle East

An agreement on the release of all hostages in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has increased hopes for an end to the two-year-long war. This is seen as a significant turning point in the negotiations mediated by the U.S. and Qatar. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that he may visit Israel soon, which could influence the political dynamics in the region.

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks and Supply Situation

Current data shows that crude oil stocks in the U.S. have risen for the second consecutive week. However, stock levels remain close to seasonal averages. In particular, stocks at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma and refined product inventories have recorded a decline.

OPEC and Global Supply Expectations

Oil prices continue to be under pressure from future additional supply expectations from OPEC and its allies. Additionally, geopolitical concerns outside the Middle East cannot be overlooked; Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure continue to affect shipments.

Analyses and Future Predictions

Many Wall Street banks and the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict that the oil market will transition into a surplus in the coming months. Goldman Sachs predicts that if global production rises in response to demand, Brent oil will average around 56 dollars next year.