Three Key Surprises Morgan Stanley Foresees for 2026
Three Major Surprises Morgan Stanley Expects in 2026
1. Productivity Growth Without Employment
The U.S. economy may experience a "productivity increase without employment" that could lower inflation and facilitate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Morgan Stanley strategist Matthew Hornbach notes that weakening in the labor market could limit wage increases and inflation while accelerating productivity may sustain economic growth. In such a scenario, core inflation could fall below 2%.
According to recent data, non-farm sector hours worked rose by 3.3% in the second quarter, recovering from a 1.8% decline in the previous quarter.
Shifts in Equity and Bond Balances
2. Reevaluation of Equity and Bond Prices
While equity and bond prices typically move in opposite directions, this relationship changed in 2025. According to Morgan Stanley, both bonds and equities rose simultaneously. This situation stems from poor economic data strengthening expectations that the Fed would cut rates.
Strategists predict that if inflation returns to the Fed's target level, there could be a return to a "bad news is bad" phase for risky assets.
Rising Commodity and Energy Price Expectations
3. Strong Increase Forecast for Commodity and Energy Prices
Commodity prices saw significant increases in 2025, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026. Morgan Stanley suggests that a weak dollar and global economic recovery could drive commodity prices higher.
The depreciation of the U.S. Dollar and strong consumption demand from China could push energy prices to new highs. Analysts believe that tight supply conditions and increasing investments in artificial intelligence will support this situation.
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