Morgan Stanley's Rising Oil Price Forecast

Surprising Oil Price Revision from Morgan Stanley

The US-based financial institution Morgan Stanley has made a significant update to its short-term oil price forecasts following the OPEC+ decision to halt production increases at the beginning of 2026. The bank announced that this decision has considerably eased concerns about the excess supply.

Rising Prices and New Predictions

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the price of Brent crude oil will average $60 per barrel in the first half of 2026. This figure represents a notable increase compared to previous predictions of $57.50. The update in the forecast indicates that the group of producing countries is falling behind in their continuously escalating production targets.

Production Targets and Achievements

The bank calculates that, despite OPEC+'s commitment to a daily production increase of 2.6 million barrels for the period of March-October 2025, only 500,000 barrels have been added. This situation highlights how the reduction of pressure on global oil supply helps the market regain stability.

Addressing Market Discrepancies

With OPEC+'s production restrictions, it is aimed to address the discrepancies occurring in global oil supply. Morgan Stanley points out that this process strengthens its predictions of continued oil price increases in the future. Investors and market analysts are closely monitoring these changes, as fluctuations in prices can have significant impacts on the global economy.