Morgan Stanley Expecting a Rally in Gold Prices for 2026

Striking Gold Forecast from Morgan Stanley

The U.S.-based investment bank Morgan Stanley has predicted that gold prices will show a strong rally, reaching $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. In the research note dated January 5, the bank emphasizes that various monetary, institutional, and geopolitical dynamics will continue to increase the value of gold.

Interest Rate Cuts and Demand for Gold

An important factor in Morgan Stanley's forecast is the expectation of a prolonged decline in global interest rates. A low interest rate environment reduces the holding costs for non-yielding assets, thus increasing demand for gold. The bank notes that this context creates an extremely favorable environment for bullion gold.

Central Bank Dynamics

The bank indicates that a possible leadership change at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could accelerate the easing of monetary policy. This situation might historically result in a weaker U.S. dollar, creating a positive atmosphere for precious metals. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that these dynamics have the potential to support gold prices.

The Role of Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical uncertainties emerge as an additional support factor for gold. According to Morgan Stanley's report, recent developments in Venezuela have the potential to increase safe-haven demand. However, it is also worth noting that this situation is not the primary driving force behind the $4,800 forecast.

Conclusion and Expectations

The future of gold prices will be shaped by the convergence of multiple factors. As Morgan Stanley forecasts, ongoing interest rate cuts, central bank policies, and geopolitical risks make gold investment attractive for investors. Therefore, gold investment instruments and the market should be closely monitored in the coming years.