JPMorgan's Minimum Wage and Economic Forecasts

JPMorgan's Striking Predictions for 2026

JPMorgan has shared its predictions in a recent report, stating that the minimum wage in Turkey will increase by 25%. This forecast is noted to potentially have a significant impact on the markets.

2025 Will Be a Challenging Period

According to the report, the year 2025 will be difficult for Turkish companies. Slowing revenues and margin pressure are expected to lead to a 20% decline in real earnings. On the other hand, an improvement in macroeconomic conditions is anticipated in 2026.

Consumer Demand Remains Fragile

Analysts point out that consumer demand may still remain fragile during 2026. When combined with the expectation of an increase in the minimum wage, this situation could heighten uncertainties in the economy.

Turkey's Growth Forecast at 4.4%

The GDP of Turkey is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026. This growth positions Turkey among the fastest-growing emerging economies when compared to Poland and Gulf countries in the CEE and EMEA markets.

Increase in Minimum Wage and Inflation

The report highlights regarding the increase in the minimum wage, stating, "J.P. Morgan anticipates a 25% increase in line with the expected 12-month inflation," which is noted to have the potential to deeply affect market dynamics.