JPMorgan's Minimum Wage and Economic Forecasts

JPMorgan's Striking Predictions for 2026

JPMorgan shared its predictions in the latest report that the minimum wage in Turkey is expected to increase by 25%. This forecast is said to potentially create significant impact in the markets.

2025 Will Be a Challenging Year

According to the report, the year 2025 will be challenging for Turkish companies. Slowing revenues and margin pressure could lead to a 20% decline in real earnings. However, an improvement in macroeconomic conditions is expected in 2026.

Consumer Demand Remains Fragile

Analysts point out that consumer demand may still remain fragile in 2026. This situation, combined with the expectation of an increase in the minimum wage, could heighten uncertainties in the economy.

Turkey's Growth Forecast at 4.4%

A 4.4% growth in Turkey's GDP is expected for the year 2026. This growth positions Turkey among the fastest-growing emerging economies compared to markets like Poland and Gulf countries within the CEE and EMEA regions.

Minimum Wage Increase and Inflation

Regarding the increase in the minimum wage, the report states, "J.P. Morgan forecasts a 25% increase in line with the expected 12-month inflation," which is noteworthy as it has the potential to deeply affect market dynamics.