Intel 2025: Is it the last chance for a comeback?

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is writing a much-anticipated comeback story after years of challenges and lost market share to competitors. Investors are looking for clues as to whether 2025 will finally be the year of turnaround.

The company’s 18A manufacturing process, if production accelerates and external customers are won, could create a significant shift in the industry. Success in this area could allow Intel to regain its former position in the manufacturing race, bringing the needed reliability and new revenue sources.

However, the situation isn’t very encouraging for Intel. Revenues for 2025 show only a 3% increase compared to last year, profit margins are still under pressure, and free cash flow is on a negative trajectory. The shares are trading at a high valuation according to the latest earnings, which serves as a stark reminder that expectations may be running ahead of fundamentals.

The high PC upgrade cycle and increased demand for data center chips have the potential to boost revenue in 2025; however, this will depend on Intel's capabilities. Sentiment changes tend to lead to significant gains or sharp declines in Intel. If they can successfully implement the 18A manufacturing process and win critical artificial intelligence contracts, the upside potential will be substantial. Otherwise, the stock may not be able to sustain its recent upward trend.

According to the one-year price targets set by 36 analysts, the average target price for Intel Corp is $35.04, with the highest estimate being $50.00 and the lowest estimate being $18.00. This average target indicates an 8.71% decline from the current $38.38 price.

GuruFocus predictions estimate Intel Corp's one-year projected GF Value to be $23.64, suggesting a 38.41% decline from the current $38.38 price. GF value is a calculation of how the stock should be valued based on its historical trading multiples and the company's past growth performance.