Goldman Sachs: Expectations for a Decrease in Oil Prices Are Increasing

Transformation in Global Energy Markets

Today, a significant restructuring process is taking place in the global energy markets. Goldman Sachs announced in its comprehensive energy report that it expects Brent crude prices to decline to 52 dollars per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank emphasized that the underlying factors behind this negative price trend are global supply surpluses and a slowdown in demand, but stated that this process will occur gradually.

Stock Increases and Their Impact on Prices

Goldman Sachs drew attention to two key elements that could delay potential price declines: the increase in OECD stocks and the high diesel refining margins. An increase in stocks above seasonal norms is expected in November, and these increases have already begun to affect prices. According to analysts' estimates, the next significant stock increase is expected to occur in January 2026, which will lower prices with a daily increase of 1.7 million barrels.

The Supportive Role of Diesel Margins

On the other hand, the fact that current diesel margins are still at high levels continues to support refinery activities and crude oil demand. This situation is becoming another important factor affecting price movements in the upcoming period, according to analysts' forecasts.

Increasing Risks Regarding Russia

Goldman Sachs also highlighted in its report that the downward risks in Russia's oil production have increased. These risks include high ruble costs, aging equipment, and technological shortcomings. Additionally, the attacks by Ukraine on Russia's energy infrastructure were noted to have exacerbated these risks. Analysts indicate that these elements represent more critical risk factors than a possible slowdown in global demand.

Imbalance Issues in International Energy Supply

Previous reports from the International Energy Agency have warned that there could be a daily 4 million barrel surplus in the global oil market by 2026. Furthermore, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to influence the markets through trade talks planned with Chinese President Xi Jinping. These talks are anticipated to bring significant progress in tariffs, technology, and market access issues.