Galaxy Digital reduces its Bitcoin forecast by 35%.

The price of Bitcoin, having recently dipped below the $100,000 level, has prompted Galaxy Digital to reduce its year-end price prediction by 35%. The company attributes this decline to the growing influence of institutional factors in the market. In particular, the drop in Bitcoin price below $100,000 this week signifies the beginning of a period where institutional investors are adopting a slower and more cautious approach to the market.

Galaxy Digital's research division has revised its 2025 year-end target from $185,000 to $120,000. This situation emphasizes that the market has shifted to a structure that is not significantly influenced by high volatility and is shaped by institutional flows. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, noted that Bitcoin's long-term structure remains strong, but indicated that whale sales, the absorption of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and declining individual investor interest have negatively impacted the market throughout the year.

According to Thorn, if the Bitcoin price can maintain the $100,000 level, the structural bull cycle that has persisted for the past three years may continue, but at a slower pace. Galaxy Digital reports that approximately 470,000 Bitcoins (about $50 billion) have been sold from long-term wallets, which signifies the institutionalization of Bitcoin supply. However, these sales have been observed to cause difficulties in the price at significant resistance areas.

Another factor increasing the market's fragility was the 35% liquidation of futures contracts that occurred in October. This event led to the closure of leveraged positions worth a total of $1.3 billion, shaking investor confidence. Galaxy Digital also notes that alternative investment themes such as artificial intelligence and gold are overshadowing Bitcoin's performance in 2025. Thorn emphasizes that although liquidity remains high, investor attention has remained limited, discussing the decreased allure of Bitcoin this year.

K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde states that Bitcoin is currently at a critical turning point and expects the selling pressure to ease soon. On the other hand, Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant warns that if Bitcoin loses the $100,000 support, it could drop to as low as $72,000. Investors need to consider these critical price levels and market dynamics.