Inflation Expectations are Rising: What Households and Market Participants are Saying?

Notable Increase in Inflation Expectations in Turkey

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has shared important data regarding inflation expectations with the public. This report indicates that the inflation expectations of market participants and households have increased, while there has been a decrease on the real sector side. According to the CBRT's statement, the data obtained from the Market Participants Survey, Economic Orientation Survey, and Consumer Sentiment Survey reflect the expectations of consumers and sectors.

Increasing Expectations: The Relationship Between Market and Households

The annual consumer inflation expectations for October 2025 increased by 1.01 points compared to the previous month, reaching 23.26% for market participants. Additionally, on the household side, the inflation expectation has risen by 1.40 points to a high level of 54.39%.

Decrease in the Real Sector

On the other hand, the inflation expectation in the real sector has decreased by 0.50 points, falling to 36.30%. This situation indicates the impact of sector dynamics and economic developments on the market.

Household Expectations and Decreasing Expectations

In previous surveys conducted in September, the inflation expectation of households was determined to be 52.99%. The change in expectations constitutes a separate point of attention. The percentage of households anticipating a decrease in inflation over the next 12 months has decreased by 0.85 points, dropping to 26.50%. These findings reveal that economic concerns are increasingly growing and individuals continue to feel uncertainty about the future.

Conclusions and Forecasts

The data released by the CBRT highlights the complex dynamics of inflation expectations in Turkey. The increasing inflation forecasts of households and market participants deepen concerns about economic stability. This situation serves as an important signal for economic policymakers.