According to Bank of America's (BofA) October currency and interest rate survey, factors threatening the independence of the Fed and potential weaknesses in the U.S. labor market stand out as the most critical risks for the dollar. The survey results highlight concerns among investors regarding the pressures on the Fed’s independence, particularly drawing attention to President Trump's calls for interest rate cuts.
32% of survey participants indicated that Trump's influence on interest rate policy could increase pressure on the Fed's independence, negatively affecting the dollar. This percentage was at 31% in September, suggesting that investors are questioning their confidence in market dynamics.
Similarly, 32% of participants forecast that anticipated weakness in the labor market could create downward pressure on the dollar. This figure was 27% in the September survey results. Weak employment figures could accelerate the decline in demand for the dollar.
Nevertheless, the October survey results indicate that the potential resilience of upcoming U.S. economic data could strengthen the dollar. Approximately 46% of participants believe that strong economic data would reduce the expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, thereby supporting the dollar. Considering that this figure was 31% in September, it suggests a significant shift in investor expectations regarding the data.
Another factor that could contribute to the dollar's strengthening is the revival of the theme of American exceptionalism. In October, 14% of survey participants regarded this situation as significant support. When it was calculated that this percentage was 19% in September, it can be said that there is uncertainty regarding the potential for an increase in the dollar.
⚖️ Yasal Uyarı:Bu içerik yatırım tavsiyesi niteliği taşımaz. Yatırımlarınızla ilgili kararlarınızı kendi araştırmalarınız ve risk profilinize göre almanız önerilir.
dollar, BofA, Fed independence, labor market, downward pressure, economic data