Cardano (ADA) ETF approval may be delayed until 2026.

ABD Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has initiated a rapid approval process for altcoin ETFs, but due to the potential government shutdown, Cardano (ADA) ETF applications could remain pending until 2026. Polymarket bettors assess the likelihood of a one-month government shutdown at 36%. This situation could delay ETF approvals, extending them into 2026.

During a government shutdown, the SEC will have limited staff available. This may result in the necessary processing of crypto ETF applications not being completed on time. The SEC will operate with a workforce of about 390 employees focused on emergencies and market monitoring, leaving insufficient personnel for new product approvals.

New ETF applications can be submitted through the EDGAR system. However, there will be no staff available to review and expedite them. Currently, IPO reviews are on hold, which also threatens the progress of altcoin ETFs.

Predictions about the effects of a government shutdown suggest that Polymarket bettors foresee federal operations resuming by the end of October or early November. This could lead to an additional wait of at least three weeks for the SEC to review applications and address pending crypto ETFs like Cardano. There are still 89 other crypto ETF applications waiting for approval, as well as approvals required for traditional financial products.

Once reopened, the SEC will have only eight weeks to work through approvals for December. The Thanksgiving holiday will also restrict this timeframe. Data from Polymarket indicates a 31% chance that the government shutdown will extend into November. If this situation continues, the SEC will have less time to clear the current application backlog.

While the likelihood of an ADA ETF being approved by the end of the year is high, the potential for delays due to uncertainties in Washington cannot be ignored. There is an 11% probability that the ADA ETF will not receive approval by 2025. However, this scenario seems more likely than market predictions suggest.