Venezuela Expectations at Çan2 Thermal Power Plant and Future Forecasts

Expectations on Venezuela Revenues at Çan2 Thermal

Çan2 Thermal made a promising statement regarding the expected increase in revenues from its affiliate in Venezuela. However, reporting a loss of 2.99 billion lira with a 158% increase in September 2025 raises questions among investors. Instead of saying, "We signed an agreement, this much money will enter the cash," the company uses the expression, "The environment is softening, expectations have formed, it will be reevaluated," indicating that there is currently no cash available.

Financial Situation and Expectations

The potential revenues from Venezuela will primarily need to cover the significant losses. Due to fluctuations in ratings, it is uncertain when profits will return. Çan2 Thermal seems unlikely to recover with the current balance sheet structure unless it manages its costs and expenses effectively. It would be healthier to expect cash flow rather than waiting for the affiliate revenue to recover.

Growth at Tüpraş and Its Financial Implications

Tüpraş has managed to gain 20% in value since the beginning of the year, attracting the attention of investors. However, the situation becomes complicated with a 25% drop in sales and a 19% decline in operating profit in the September 2025 quarterly financial statements. How does net profit still show a 21% increase in such a scenario?

Financial Success and Hidden Revenues

The primary reason for this is Tüpraş's cash management. The company operates with a net cash of 74.4 billion lira, and generated 14.3 billion lira in interest and 3.7 billion lira from exchange rate differences among various revenue items. This allowed it to increase net profit despite operational declines. However, it is important to note the expectations for dividends. If the anticipated dividends are paid, this strong performance could continue. Otherwise, risks may increase for investors.