Bitcoin's New Volatility Period: Year-End Fluctuation is Expected

In recent days, Bitcoin has been trapped in the low ninety thousand dollar range. Analysts at Derive.xyz and BRN Research indicate that the market has entered a new volatility regime. While the Bitcoin price moves within a narrow range, market pressure is observed to stem from two main sources: intense selling by retail investors and increased demand for downside protection in the options market.

BRN Research's research director Timothy Misir expresses that Bitcoin is at a certain "intersection point." The transfer of thirty-one thousand eight hundred Bitcoin to exchanges in recent days shows that panic selling among retail investors has increased. However, there is also the fastest increase in the number of wallets holding over one Bitcoin in the last four months, with an increase of two point two percent. The outflow of three hundred seventy-three million dollars from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. indicates that while retail investors are selling, institutional investors are remaining more cautious.

Derive.xyz's research director Sean Dawson emphasizes that the options market is providing clearer signals. The simultaneous rise of both short-term and long-term implied volatility within two weeks suggests that a "sustainable uncertainty environment" is being priced in. Thirty-day volatility increased from 41% to 49%, while six-month volatility rose from 46% to 49%. The rapid strengthening of put demand confirms that investors are seeking downside protection.

In December futures options, there is a significant put position at the eighty thousand dollar level. Dawson states that current pricing indicates a 50% chance that Bitcoin will close the year below ninety thousand dollars. Meanwhile, while the market structure is squeezed between retail sell-offs and controlled accumulation by large wallets, ETF outflows are weakening the overall picture. Large outflows seen in BlackRock’s IBIT product and strong negative flows in Ethereum make it difficult for Bitcoin to hold around ninety thousand dollars.

The 21Shares team indicates that the current outlook is not a cycle break but rather a short-term reset. The report states that the liquidation of nearly four billion dollars in long positions has accelerated the decline, but selling pressure from long-term investors has decreased, and assets have passed into resilient hands. The firm highlights eighty-five thousand dollars as the first major support level, with the range of ninety-eight thousand to one hundred thousand dollars as the main resistance area. It is emphasized that if liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin could regain the one hundred thousand dollar level, strengthening the overall trend.