Bitcoin's New Volatility Era: Year-End Fluctuations Expected

In recent days, Bitcoin has been stuck in the low ninety thousand dollar range. Analysts from Derive.xyz and BRN Research indicate that the market has entered a new volatility regime. While the price of Bitcoin moves within a narrow range, market pressure is observed to be coming from two main sources: intense sales by retail investors and increased demand for downside protection in the options market.

BRN Research's research director Timothy Misir states that Bitcoin is at a certain "intersection point." Recently, the transfer of thirty-one thousand eight hundred Bitcoin to exchanges shows that panic selling by retail investors has increased. Additionally, there has been a two-point-two percent rise in the number of wallets holding over one Bitcoin, marking the fastest increase in the last four months. The outflow of three hundred seventy-three million dollars from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US indicates that while retail investors are selling, institutional investors remain more cautious.

Derive.xyz's research director Sean Dawson emphasizes that the options market has provided clearer signals. The rise in both short-term and long-term implied volatility over the past two weeks signals that a "sustainable uncertainty environment" is being priced in. The thirty-day volatility increased from 41% to 49%, while six-month volatility rose from 46% to 49%. The rapid strengthening of put demand confirms that investors are seeking downside protection.

In December futures options, a significant put position was found at the eighty thousand dollar level. Dawson suggests that the current pricing highlights a 50% chance of Bitcoin closing the year below ninety thousand dollars. Meanwhile, as the market structure is squeezed between retail selling and the controlled accumulation by large wallets, ETF outflows weaken the overall picture. Significant outflows seen in BlackRock’s IBIT product and strong negative flows in Ethereum make it challenging for Bitcoin to maintain around ninety thousand dollars.

The 21Shares team indicates that the current outlook is not a cycle break but rather a short-term reset. The report states that the liquidation of nearly four billion dollars in long positions accelerated the decline; however, selling pressure from long-term investors has decreased, and assets have moved into more resilient hands. The firm highlights eighty-five thousand dollars as the first major support and the range between ninety-eight thousand and one hundred thousand dollars as the main resistance area. It is emphasized that if liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin could regain the one hundred thousand dollar level and strengthen the overall trend.