A New Volatility Period in Bitcoin: Year-End Fluctuations Expected

In recent days, Bitcoin has been caught in a tight range around ninety thousand dollars. Analysts from Derive.xyz and BRN Research indicate that the market is entering a new regime of volatility. While the price of Bitcoin moves within a narrow range, market pressure is observed to be developing from two main sources: heavy selling by retail investors and increasing demand for downside protection in the options market.

BRN Research's research director Timothy Misir states that Bitcoin is at a certain "crossroads." Recently, thirty-one thousand eight hundred Bitcoin moving to exchanges shows that panic selling by retail investors has increased. Meanwhile, there has been a two point two percent increase in the number of wallets holding over one Bitcoin, marking the fastest rise in the past four months. The outflow of three hundred seventy-three million dollars from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. reveals that while retail investors are selling, institutional investors remain more cautious.

Derive.xyz's research director Sean Dawson emphasizes that the options market is providing clearer signals. The simultaneous rise in both short-term and long-term implied volatility within two weeks indicates that "a sustainable uncertainty environment" is being priced in. Thirty-day volatility increased from 41% to 49%, while six-month volatility rose from 46% to 49%. The rapid strengthening of put demand confirms that investors are seeking downside protection.

In December futures options, a significant put position was observed at the eighty thousand dollar level. Dawson expresses that current pricing suggests a 50% chance of Bitcoin closing the year below ninety thousand dollars. Meanwhile, as the market structure is caught between retail selling and the controlled accumulation of large wallets, ETF outflows weaken the overall picture. The significant outflows seen in BlackRock’s IBIT product and strong negative flows in Ethereum make it challenging for Bitcoin to hold around ninety thousand dollars.

The 21Shares team states that the current outlook is not a cycle break, but a short-term reset. The report indicates that the liquidation of nearly four billion dollars in long positions accelerated the decline, yet the selling pressure from long-term investors has decreased and assets have moved into resilient hands. The firm highlights eighty-five thousand dollars as the first major support, while the ninety-eight thousand to one hundred thousand dollars range is pointed out as the main resistance zone. It is emphasized that if liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin could regain the one hundred thousand dollar level and strengthen the overall trend.