"There's No Crash in Bitcoin, What Are the Necessary Conditions for an Increase?"

Bitcoin (BTC) had a weak start in November, dropping below $108,000 due to profit-taking by whales and increased ETF outflows. The leading cryptocurrency fell from the $110,000 level to $107,200 on Monday after moving within a narrow range over the weekend. During the same period, large cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, BNB, and Solana (SOL) experienced a value loss of between %3–5, with the total market capitalization declining to $3.6 trillion.

According to CoinGlass data, positions worth $536 million were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with $475 million of that stemming from long positions. Timothy Misir, Chairman of BRN Research, stated that this drop was not a "structural collapse," but rather a profit-taking following the September-October rally. Misir emphasized that there are still structural bulls in the market, but "spot demand needs to strengthen for the uptrend to continue."

In October, whales accumulated approximately 110,000 BTC while selling 23,000 BTC. Last week, net outflows of $799 million were recorded from spot Bitcoin ETFs. While Ethereum products remained stable, Solana ETFs saw an inflow of $200 million. Analysts suggest this indicates that investors are turning towards "higher-risk assets" in the short term.

On-chain indicators also show signs of weakness. Realized profitability ratios have decreased, funding rates remain low, and there is a slight negative trend in options data. Bitcoin options open interest has fallen from $56 billion in October to $43 billion. Misir noted, "The market is currently in a digestion process. It is difficult for prices to break upward without renewed strength in spot demand."

Bitfinex shared cautious optimism for November. The exchange forecasts that Bitcoin's price could fluctuate between $105,000 and $140,000 this month. Additionally, it was noted that volatility has decreased from %47 to %40 and CME futures open positions have increased by %5 on a weekly basis. The company stated that inflation and any signals of easing from the Fed could support upward movement.

Historically, November is known to be one of the strongest periods for Bitcoin. According to CoinGlass data, an average increase of %46 has been recorded over the past 13 years. However, analysts point out that the weak performance of October this year suggests that the market has entered a "pause and repricing" process.