Is Bitcoin Giving Signals for a Rise?

K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde believes that despite Bitcoin's (BTC) weak performance against the Nasdaq over the past 30 days, significant bottom signals are forming in the markets. Bitcoin price, which started the autumn season with a pessimistic outlook, tested the 100 thousand dollar level again at the beginning of October, marking the lowest level seen since June. In this situation, which has raised concerns among investors, liquidity crunch, long-term investor sell-offs, and a fear-driven market sentiment have come to the forefront.

Following the sell-off waves on October 10 that led to over 20 billion dollars in leveraged liquidations, the current conditions have created a cautious wait-and-see environment. According to Lunde, the Federal Reserve's (FED) recent interest rate cut has not only increased uncertainty but also heightened risk perception due to the impact of government shutdown. During this process, 319 thousand Bitcoins moved from long-term wallets, indicating a potential shift.

Lunde states that short-term selling pressure may decrease and the market has entered a “post-liquidation consolidation” phase. Such periods are generally seen as “slow yet purging phases before a rise” for investors. Currently, CME futures premiums are at their lowest levels since March 2023, indicating that selling pressure is nearing saturation. Although Bitcoin has lagged behind assets such as the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and gold, Lunde remains optimistic about the long term.

Lunde expresses that the access of crypto to 401(k) funds, bank integrations, and expansive monetary policies have weakened the peak levels in the market's four-year cycle. Emphasizing that the current decline is not a collapse but rather a renewal phase, Lunde concluded, “The charts may look dreadful, but this period offers very attractive opportunities for patient investors,” highlighting critical points for investors to pay attention to during this process.