Bitcoin Third Quarter Performance: Critical Levels Announced

Despite managing to close the third quarter with a **1 percent** gain amid recent fluctuations, Bitcoin underperformed against stocks, precious metals, and the dollar, turning investors' eyes to critical levels. In the last week of September, historically one of the weakest periods of the year, Bitcoin lost **5 percent** of its value, resulting in an outcome below both third-quarter and September expectations. Additionally, historically, the **38th week** is known as one of the weakest periods for crypto assets. On Friday, as option contracts worth over **17 billion dollars** expired, the “max pain” level was set at **110 thousand dollars**. This situation acted as a magnet, pulling the Bitcoin price towards this level. According to on-chain data, the average cost for short-term investors is determined to be **110,775 dollars**, and Bitcoin had tested this level in August. Analysts emphasize that this level is a critical reference point in bull markets. Another important technical indicator is the **200-day exponential moving average** (EMA), and it's worth noting that this level is **106,186 dollars**. If Bitcoin experiences closures below this level, concerns may arise about a potential breakdown in the general trend. Looking at the macroeconomic picture, the U.S. economy grew by **3.8 percent** in the second quarter, outperforming expectations. The decline in unemployment claims and a **0.2 percent** increase in the core PCE inflation index are noteworthy. Additionally, bond yields have once again risen to the **4.2 percent** level. In the metals sector, silver prices are testing peaks not seen since **1980**, reaching **45 dollars**. While U.S. stock markets are trading near historical highs, Bitcoin is still trading **10 percent** below its peak. Bitcoin companies continue to face pressure; for instance, companies like **Strategy (MSTR)** and **Metaplanet** are experiencing significant value losses. MSTR's performance against the IBIT ETF has fallen to its lowest level in the last **1 year**, causing the ratio between the company's market capitalization and its Bitcoin holdings to narrow. Metaplanet's mNAV ratio, which was **8.44** in June, has dropped to **1.12**. Although the company holds **25,555 BTC**, giving it approximately **500 million dollars** in new purchasing power, its stock price is trading **70 percent** below its historical peak.