Bitcoin is expected to see a short-term recovery, but long-term challenges will continue.

In recent days, Bitcoin's price movements have come under significant pressure as the U.S. government shutdown continues. This situation is disrupting the liquidity flow of Bitcoin (BTC), increasing investor concerns. As the government shutdown has entered its second month, there are noticeable distortions in Bitcoin's on-chain metrics. According to CryptoQuant analysts, this situation indicates not only financial uncertainties but also a global liquidity freeze.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the government shutdown could lead to a 1-2% growth loss in the U.S. economy this quarter and a production loss of between $7 billion and $14 billion. Particularly during this period of increased inflows to exchanges, it is noteworthy that miners are resorting to selling Bitcoin. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, it has been observed that Bitcoin exchange reserves, which had been declining for the past six weeks, have started to increase again. This situation indicates that investors are preparing to move their assets to exchanges to either reduce risk or realize profits.

Historically, such exchange inflows often indicate increased volatility in the markets. Additionally, the decline of miner reserves to the lowest level since mid-2025 highlights that miners have had to sell Bitcoin due to energy incentives and tax credits being cut because of the shutdown. These developments also suggest that while liquidity is moving toward safe havens, outflows of stablecoins have reached record levels. During this period, investors are shifting from risky assets to stable currencies with dollar pegs.

When these three key indicators — exchange reserves, miner reserves, and stablecoin outflows — are evaluated together, it is clear that capital is moving toward safe assets rather than risking it. Investor sentiment is also following a similar trend. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped back into the 'Extreme Fear' zone, returning to a level reminiscent of the banking liquidity crisis in 2023. While the CBO expects a short-term recovery once the shutdown ends, CryptoQuant analysts emphasize that the return of confidence and capital flow will be much slower during this process.

Experts state that this will not only be a classic buying opportunity for Bitcoin but also a time that tests faith and patience. Therefore, while investors may believe that Bitcoin could experience a short-term recovery, they should not forget that the real improvement will require a much longer process.