"Bitcoin Bullish Expectations Are Weakening, Data Warns"

In recent days, Bitcoin price movements have created an increasing wariness among investors. While a movement towards the $94,000 level was observed, trading volume and volatility data changed significantly. According to Glassnode data, investors are being more cautious about taking positions against short-term downside risks.

As the Bitcoin price approaches a local peak, there was a rapid rise in the ATM implied volatility indicator. However, the price's stagnation caused this indicator to decline. Glassnode emphasizes that this situation indicates the involvement of volatility sellers, and a strong price expansion is not expected in the short term.

New data shows that the demand for downside protection in the options market has increased. Specifically, the 25 delta skew indicator has shifted back to the negative side with the retest of the $90,000 level. The one-week skew ratio has reached 8.2%, indicating that interest in put options has risen and that investors are hedging against downside risks.

Glassnode's analysis shows that the short-term downside implied volatility has risen alongside the price over the past two weeks. This development indicates that investors are more inclined to purchase protection during strengthening moments rather than chasing price increases. A similar scenario is evident on the upside implied volatility side as well, where investors are trying to increase their returns by selling call options, which is clearly visible as the price approaches a local peak.

On the other hand, it is worth noting that the one-week volatility risk premium has remained positive at approximately 10 volatility points. This situation creates an advantageous market environment for volatility sellers. However, the increase in realized volatility over the last three days is narrowing this gap. Glassnode also reported that in the last 24 hours, 30% of the options flow has been in the direction of put purchases. This data shows that, with the weakening of the Bitcoin price and the approach of critical US macro data, investors' need for downside insurance has increased.