Historical Traces in Bitcoin Price: Closure Process and Rise Hope

The ongoing government shutdown in the US is restricting access to economic data, making it difficult for investors to find direction. The effects of previous shutdowns on Bitcoin prices have raised curiosity. Historical data shows that the current shutdown period coincides with Bitcoin's previous bear market bottoming processes. Notably, during the US government shutdown in 2018, the price of Bitcoin fell from 6,000 dollars to 3,000 dollars, marking its lowest point. When the shutdown ended in January 2019, Bitcoin began to recover, recording seven consecutive weeks of gains between February and April. During that period, the price rose above 5,000 dollars.

However, analysts emphasize that despite drawing attention to similarities between the two periods, there is no direct cause-and-effect relationship between the shutdown process and price reversal. During the recent shutdown, Bitcoin's price declined by approximately %1, while the decline in the Nasdaq index caused investors to remain cautious.

Last Friday, the crypto market experienced a historic leverage liquidation. The price of Bitcoin dropped to 107,000 dollars on the Coinbase exchange, with a total of 20 billion dollars in leveraged positions being liquidated. CoinMetrics assessed this situation as the market being 'settled on a healthier ground'. The company stated, 'The major liquidation process was not a systemic crash but a stress test that cleaned out excessive leverage.'

Another encouraging factor for Bitcoin is the historic rise in gold. The price of gold per ounce surpassed 4,200 dollars for the first time, increasing by %61 since the beginning of the year. Silver, palladium, and platinum have also shown similar upward trends. Research indicates that Bitcoin typically follows rallies in gold prices with an approximately 100 day lag. According to JPMorgan's model, if this relationship continues, Bitcoin has the potential to reach 165,000 dollars by year-end.