Bitcoin Price Early Signals: History May Repeat in a Downtrend

Bitcoin (BTC) has returned to a region where it previously encountered dip points due to a recent decline. According to data provided by a CryptoQuant analyst, despite increasing volatility and liquidations in the Bitcoin market over the last 24 hours, the fundamental network metrics remain strong.

Currently, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating between $102,800 and $104,400, while the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to extreme fear levels, reaching 20. Analyses show that over the past day, more than $1.7 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, the majority of which consisted of long positions. While long-term holders (LTH) continue to realize profits, short-term investors are facing forced selling pressure.

Nevertheless, the continued decline in Bitcoin reserves on exchanges indicates that investors are pulling their Bitcoin into their own wallets instead of selling. This behavior has historically been observed during market equilibrium phases. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, historically at dip levels, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has dropped to 1.8, reaching its lowest point since April 2025. This level indicates that Bitcoin's market value is approaching the average cost of investors and has historically coincided with accumulation zones.

The CryptoQuant analyst notes that when the MVRV ratio falls between 1.8 and 2.0, it typically coincides with mid-term bottom or early recovery periods. At the same time, despite the fear, strong Stablecoin metrics also indicate that the market is in a defensive position. The supply of Tether (USDT) remains around $183 billion, while the supply of USD Coin (USDC) is stable at about $75 billion, maintaining institutional demand support.

Experts suggest that this cautious wait in the market is focused on macroeconomic developments such as employment and trade data coming from the US. Looking at the overall picture, Bitcoin’s $99,000 to $101,000 range could constitute a potential floor. Analysts emphasize that the current wave of selling is a rational repositioning process rather than panic.