Rice Prices in Asia Declining: Record Production and Supply Surplus

Rice Prices in Asia at Lowest Level in Last 10 Years

Record rice production in India and increasing global supply have driven rice prices in Asia to the lowest level in the last 10 years. Especially countries like the Philippines, which are among the world’s largest rice importers, have decided to restrict imports to support local producers, further increasing the pressure on prices.

Excess Supply in Markets is Influential

Nitin Gupta, Vice President of Olam Agri India, emphasized that some countries in West Africa have rice stocks sufficient for 3 to 5 months of consumption, stating, "There is a growing surplus in the market, and this is pulling prices down in Asia."

As Prices Fall, Farmers' Income is at Risk

According to a report by Bloomberg, last month the benchmark rice price in Asia fell to its lowest level in the last 10 years. While this situation may provide some relief to household budgets, it negatively affects the income of many producing farmers, from India to Thailand.

Philippines Restricts Imports

The Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, plans to extend its import ban until April to support its agricultural sector. This decision is critical in protecting the prices of local producers.

Historic Drop in Thailand Rice Prices

According to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association, the price per ton of 5% broken white rice fell to $351 as of October 22, the lowest level since September 2015. Millers in Thailand, Pakistan, and Myanmar are selling at least 3% lower prices than Indian-origin products.

New Market Searches and Future Predictions

Rohith Singh, the Director of the Civil Supply Department of Telangana State in Thailand, stated, "We are trying to find new markets to support our farmers and reduce excess stocks." He mentioned that they are in discussions with buyers from Benin, Kuwait, and North Africa.

According to the predictions of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global rice production is expected to reach a record level of 556.4 million tons in the 2025-26 period. Farmers in India have started harvesting at the end of September, and the collection process is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

Abundant supply is also causing buyers to act more cautiously. The Dubai-based Invictus Trading Fze company plans to purchase rice from India in small batches instead of bulk, anticipating further price declines.

Former senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute Samarendu Mohanty stated, "India is producing a lot of rice. Therefore, the downward trend will continue. It is possible that prices in the domestic market could decrease by 10-15%."