Aselsan (ASELS) has announced its balance sheet for the second quarter of 2025, and the results came in well above market expectations. The company announced a net profit of 3.99 billion TL, an increase of 29% compared to the same period last year. The most important factor behind this strong performance was deferred tax revenue of TL 4.3 billion. EBITDA was reported at TL 8 billion, 16% above market expectations, and Aselsan reached the highest margins in the last four years.

These results show that increased defense spending, triggered by global geopolitical risks, continues to support Aselsan's revenues. Increasing military spending by NATO and Eastern bloc countries, in particular, gives defense industry companies significant growth momentum.

Increased Defense Spending Supports Growth

Rapidly escalating geopolitical tensions after the pandemic have pushed global defense spending to record levels. Looking at dollar inflation-adjusted figures, the highest global defense budgets have been reached since 1987. The European Union's defense investment of 500+300 million euros and NATO members' defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035 suggest that this trend will continue over the next decade. Likewise, Eastern bloc countries are increasing their defense budgets to meet this increase.

Turkey's defense and aviation exports are also steadily increasing as a result of this global trend. According to Turkish Exporters' Council (TIM) data, defense exports grew by over 10% in dollar terms in the last four years. Exports exceeded $5 billion in 2024 continue to grow, supported by global demand in 2025. These developments enable leading companies of the sector, such as Aselsan, to strengthen their position in the international market.

Records in Exports and Orders

Aselsan's exports in the first half of 2024 were 4.8 billion TL, while in the same period of 2025 this figure reached 6 billion TL, an increase of 25%. Rising geopolitical tensions and security demands, especially in Central Asia, are boosting the company's sales in this region.

New jobs received by the company increased 8% on a dollar basis to $2.8 billion over the second half of 2024. In addition, orders with balances increased by over 30%, reaching the highest backlog level in Aselsan's history. This provides a strong foundation for sustainable growth in the coming years. The ratio between the company's current market capitalization and orders with balances suggests that Aselsan is trading at an attractive valuation.

2025 Expectations and the Course of Margins

Aselsan targets revenue growth of 10% and an EBITDA margin of 23% according to inflation accounting for 2025. In the first half of 2025, the EBITDA margin stood at 25%, which is in line with last year's levels. However, the decline in margins to 23% in the second half of the year suggests that real growth in operational profitability may be slowing. The fact that the company plans to invest 20 billion TL in 2025 could put pressure on cash flow.

Item 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 Quarterly Change (%) Net Profit (TL) 3.2 3.99 24.7% Net Profit YoY Increase (%) 22 29 31.8% EBITDA (TL) 7.0 8.0 14.3% EBITDA Margin (%) 25 25 0.0% Exports (TL) 4.8 6.0 25.0% Orders with Balance (USD) 2,6 2,8 7.7%

Aselsan Stock and Technical Analysis

Aselsan shares on the Istanbul Stock Exchange showed a strong upward trend since the beginning of the year, consolidating in the range of 186-190 TL. In the stock, which hangs below the 10-day exponential moving average with today's movement, the 21-day exponential moving average at the level of 178 TL is in the main support position. Further below, the dollar-based $3.8 level is followed as the zone where the dish pattern is completed. At the top, the 190 TL levels stand out as strong resistance.

When the technical outlook and balance sheet results are considered together, it is anticipated that Aselsan will continue to benefit from both domestic defense projects and increased global demand. Increased global investments in the defense industry and the company's strong order volume support the medium-long term uptrend.