Allianz Trade Predicts That Bankruptcies Will Increase in 2026

Bankruptcy Forecasts from Allianz Trade

Allianz Trade, one of the world's leading trade credit insurance providers, has made striking predictions about a surge in bankruptcies in 2026. It published its Bankruptcy Report, analyzing the impact of customs tariffs in the US and changes in global trade routes on commercial bankruptcies.

Worrying Increase in Global Bankruptcies

Allianz Trade predicts that commercial bankruptcies worldwide will end with a 6% increase in 2025, reaching a peak with a 5% increase in 2026. This represents the fifth consecutive increase in bankruptcies. However, a 1% decrease is expected from 2027 onwards.

As the domino effect of customs tariffs increases, bankruptcy risks are emphasized to continue in 2026. The report states that the acceleration of business formation trends due to technology and potential balloon bursts of artificial intelligence may particularly increase bankruptcy risks in the US and Europe.

Bankruptcy Situation in Turkey

When discussing Turkey, the report points out that concordat agreements are twice as high as bankruptcies. It is expected that bankruptcies in Turkey will show a high rate of increase in 2025, but this rate is projected to decrease starting from 2026.

Increase in Bankruptcies in China

According to Allianz Trade's report, after a 10% increase in 2024, commercial bankruptcies are expected to rise by an additional 6% in 2025, reaching the highest level since 2019, and being 19% higher compared to the pre-pandemic average. Significant increases in commercial bankruptcies have been observed in Asia, particularly in Western European countries like Italy and Switzerland.

Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, warned that trade wars and secondary effects could test the resilience of companies. "With the increase in large-scale bankruptcies, we note that the risks of not being paid are also rising," she said.

Impact of Customs Tariffs

Allianz Trade indicates that the import tariffs under the Trump administration could rise to 14%, creating different effects on businesses. While US companies may maintain control of their costs with the help of foreign exporters, it is stated that economies dependent on exports could find themselves in a difficult situation in the event of a slowdown in global trade.