US National Debt Exceeds $36 Trillion: These 5 Scenarios Could Upset the World Economy

🔍 Let's Get to the Bottom of the Problem First

• Debt Interest Became the Biggest Item: Interest expenses in the US federal budget for 2025 have outstripped even defense spending. This leads to a reduction in the resource to be allocated to public services.
• The Ratio to GDP is Alarming: The 130% level is considered unsustainable not only for developing countries, but also for developed economies.
• Treasury Bond Yields Soar: The interest rate on the 10-year bond climbed to 4.6%. This suggests that new borrowing has become much more costly.

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📊 5 Possible Major Economic Scenarios

Each scenario depends on a specific trigger. If that trigger happens, both the U.S. economy and global markets could be deeply affected.

1. 📉 Interest Rate Shock and Recession Deadlock

If the Fed continues to keep interest rates high...

→ The interest burden on the public debt grows rapidly. The U.S. Treasury has a hard time translating existing debt.
→ Demand for Treasury bonds weakens, yields rise, borrowing costs rise further.
→ High interest rates also suppress private sector investment.
→ Consumer loans and mortgage rates increase, domestic consumption slows down.
→ Conclusion: The US economy enters a recession.

If the Fed cuts interest rates early...

→ There is a risk of a resurgence of inflation.
→ Real interest rate remains negative, dollar weakens.
Global investors exit the dollar.
→ Conclusion: Stagflation (stagnation + high inflation) environment can occur.

2. 💸 Weakening of the Dollar's Global Reserve Status

If investors lose confidence in the United States...

→ Countries such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia withdraw their reserves from the dollar.
→ Gold, Euro, Chinese Yuan and digital assets gain strength as reserve currency alternatives.
→ The ability of the United States to borrow weakens by printing dollars.
→ Conclusion: The dollar depreciates, import costs rise, domestic inflation rises.

3. ⚠️ Credit Rating Decline and Crisis of Confidence

If the debt level continues to rise at this rate...

→ Credit rating agencies (Moody's, Fitch, S&P) further lower the rating of the USA.
→ In the markets “Will the US default?” The question begins to be talked about.
→ Institutional investors (pension funds, insurance companies) restructure their portfolios.
→ Conclusion: Wave of selling in the bond market, high volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

4. The Rise of Gold, Bitcoin and Other Safe Harbors

If the debt crisis shakes investor confidence...

→ Demand for value-storing tools such as gold and silver is increasing.
→ Bitcoin and stablecoin-based financial instruments stand out as alternatives.
→ Physical assets (land, real estate, precious metals) find a place in portfolios again.
→ Conclusion: Transition from the traditional financial system to digital and physical safe havens.

5. 🧾 Tax Increases and Reductions in Public Expenditure

If the budget deficit becomes unsustainable...

→ Income taxes, corporate tax and capital gains taxes could be increased.
→ Cuts in programs such as health, education, social security are on the agenda.
→ Revenues of publicly owned companies are reduced.
→ Strategic projects such as infrastructure and energy can be postponed.
→ Conclusion: The profit margins of public companies fall, the risk of unemployment increases.

🧭 Predictions for the Future

🎯 In the Short Term (2025—2026)

• Debt ceiling debate could turn into a political crisis.
• There may be a liquidity problem in US bonds.
• Developing countries can take new steps to reduce dependence on the dollar.

🔮 Medium and Long Term

• If the United States does not pursue structural reforms, this debt burden could become “the fragile center of the global financial system.”
• The US dollar may be moving away from being the sole dominant currency in the global financial system.
• Discussions of a new global monetary system may gain momentum.

📌 This Is Not Only The Problem Of The USA, But Of The World

The debt of the United States has ceased to be an internal affair of the United States. While more than 80% of world trade is done on a dollar basis, US bonds are the cornerstone of many countries' reserves and pension funds. As such, U.S. debt sustainability directly impacts not just the American people; it directly impacts investors, central banks, and consumers.

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📣 What To Do Now

These developments can affect your investment strategy. Review your risks, diversify your portfolio and reassess assets such as foreign exchange, gold, stocks.

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Disclaimer: This content is not investment advice. It is recommended that you seek professional advice before making your financial decisions.

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