🔎 As global markets rise under the influence of strong US data, interest rate cut prospects weaken. Cautious optimism prevails in the markets ahead of the decision week of the European and Turkish central banks.

Strong economic data released in the US weakens the likelihood of the Fed going to cut interest rates later this year, while global markets are on a cautiously optimistic course. The big banks' second-quarter profits, in particular, exceeded expectations, and the vitality in consumer spending signaled that the U.S. economy was maintaining strength.

While Trump's criticism of Fed President Powell continues, the pressure to cut interest rates continues. However, recent CPI and PPI data showed inflation accelerating again. These developments weakened expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September.

In June in the United States:

• CPI rose to 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations.
• Core CPI continued to rise 2.9%.
• PPI rose 2.3% year-on-year, below expectations.
• Retail sales increased by 0.6%.
• Applications for unemployment benefits fell 221,000 to a three-month low.

Total in the money markets still in the year two discounts Although it continues to be priced, the prospect of September is weakened. The dollar index rose 0.6% to 98.48 with this outlook.

📈 How Did the Exchanges Spend the Week?

• THE S&P 500 0,59% per week
• Nasdaq Inc. increased by 1.51%,
• Dow Jones It has fallen by 0.07%.
• Golden fell 0.2% on the week to $3,350.
• Brent oil It closed down 2% at $68.6.

🇪🇺 ECB Expected in Europe, Data Mixed

In Europe, investors focused on the ECB's interest rate decision, which will be announced Thursday. The Bank is not expected to change interest rates. However, Eurozone CPI data remains above target at 2%. Inflation in the UK continued to rise at 3.6%, while the Bank of Germany reported a loss of momentum in growth.

ASML's revenues increased by 15% and profits of 2.29% billion euros supported technology stocks.

📈 European indices weekly outlook:

• FTSE 100 (United Kingdom): +%0.57
• DAX (Germany): +%0.14
• MIB 30 (Italy): +%0.58
• CAC 40 (France): −%0.08

📅 Apart from the ECB meeting, PMI data in Europe and the German business confidence index will stand out this week.

🌏 China Surprise in Asia, Nvidia Gets Approval for Sale to China

Positive growth data from China and the re-approval of Nvidia to sell its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China supported the region's stock markets. China's economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter, while industrial production and export figures exceeded expectations. In Japan, inflation remains above the BoJ target.

Asian stock markets weekly performance:

• Shanghai (China): +%0.69
• Hang Seng (Hong Kong): +%2.84
• Kospi (South Korea): +%0.38
• Nikkei (Japan): +%0.63

🇹🇷 Turkey Eyes on TCMB Interest Rate Decision

The BIST 100 index ended the week up 0.07% from 10,366 points, while the dollar/TL rose to 40.39. Critical data and decisions at home in the new week are on the agenda:

Developments to follow:

• Monday: TCMB Market Participants Survey
• Wednesday: Consumer Confidence Index
• Thursday: TCMB Monetary Policy Board meeting and interest rate decision
• Friday: Real Cut Confidence Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, Moody's and Fitch ratings

Economists who participated in the AA Finance survey, CMB cut its policy rate by 250 basis points to 43.50% waiting. At the end of the year, the median interest rate is 35%.

Technically, 10.500 — 10.600 resistance on BIST 100; 10.200 — 10.300 points stand out as support.

📄 Disclaimer:
This article is prepared for general information purposes. The information, comments and evaluations contained in the content are not covered by investment advice. Before making financial decisions, you should definitely do your own research and seek professional support. Investment tools may not match your expectations and may involve risk.

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